Federal election live: Labor a majority seat, Barnaby Joyce to be challenged for Nationals leadership

Which seats are still uncertain?

We are nearly a full week away from last Saturday’s federal election, and there are still four uncertain seats across the country.

The work count is currently at 75one less seat to form a majority government where they can govern on their own.

ABC Chief Election Analyst Anthony Green explains how close some of those remaining seats are.

Brisbane, QLD — Greens ahead

The tally in Brisbane will exclude the four lowest candidates first. This will determine an order for the bottom three candidates, LNP, Labor and Green. The preference tally given here uses an estimate of preferences for the first four exclusions provided to me by the scrutineers, which is 35.1% for the Greens, 15.6% for Labor and 49.3% for the NLP.

This currently puts the Greens ahead of Labor in the preference distribution and leads the Greens to defeat the LNP. The result can swing to a Labor victory if an extra count shifts the balance between Labor and Green first preferences or alters the order of exclusion in the preference distribution.

Deakin, VIC — Likely Liberals

Michael Sukkar leads with 1,032 votes.

Gilmore, NSW – Liberals in the lead

Andrew Constance leads by 286 votes.

Macnamara, VIC – Probable Work

Teller figures based on an AEC preference roll for the five lowest candidates in the polls produce preference streams of 18% for Labour, 34% for the Greens and 48% for the Liberals. The application of these places the last three candidates within a thousand votes of each other. If the Green or Liberal candidates are third, Labor wins. If the Labor candidates are third, the Greens win. For this reason, Macnamara is left in doubt.

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